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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.8% - 9.8% | 10.3% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 9.3x - 10.3x | 9.8x |
Fair Value | $609.88 - $702.62 | $654.74 |
Upside | -15.9% - -3.1% | -9.7% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 2,207 | 2,655 | 3,050 | 3,500 | 4,252 | 4,764 | 5,121 | 5,301 | 5,407 | 5,515 | 5,625 |
% Growth | 21.2% | 20.3% | 14.9% | 14.8% | 21.5% | 12.0% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 576 | 971 | 1,159 | 1,357 | 1,736 | 1,997 | 2,172 | 2,248 | 2,293 | 2,339 | 2,386 |
% of Revenue | 26.1% | 36.6% | 38.0% | 38.8% | 40.8% | 41.9% | 42.4% | 42.4% | 42.4% | 42.4% | 42.4% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 971 | 1,159 | 1,357 | 1,736 | 1,997 | 2,172 | 2,248 | 2,293 | 2,339 | 2,386 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (40) | (59) | (51) | (61) | (69) | (74) | (76) | (78) | (80) | (81) | |
EBIT | 931 | 1,100 | 1,306 | 1,675 | 1,928 | 2,098 | 2,172 | 2,215 | 2,260 | 2,305 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (112) | (132) | (157) | (201) | (231) | (252) | (261) | (266) | (271) | (277) | |
NOPAT | 475 | 819 | 968 | 1,149 | 1,474 | 1,697 | 1,847 | 1,911 | 1,950 | 1,989 | 2,028 |
Capital Expenditures | (146) | (142) | (157) | (187) | (234) | (262) | (228) | (236) | (240) | (235) | (237) |
NWC Investment | (72) | (83) | (73) | (84) | (140) | (95) | (66) | (33) | (20) | (20) | (20) |
(+) D&A | 36 | 40 | 59 | 51 | 61 | 69 | 74 | 76 | 78 | 80 | 81 |
Free Cash Flow | 293 | 634 | 796 | 929 | 1,162 | 1,409 | 1,626 | 1,719 | 1,767 | 1,813 | 1,852 |
% Growth | 26% | 17% | 25% | 21% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 2% |