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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.8% - 9.8% | 10.3% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 8.5x - 9.4x | 9.0x |
Fair Value | $679.12 - $780.86 | $728.35 |
Upside | -21.6% - -9.8% | -15.9% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 2,207 | 2,743 | 3,157 | 3,640 | 4,186 | 4,612 | 5,055 | 5,428 | 5,790 | 6,186 | 6,652 |
% Growth | 21.2% | 24.3% | 15.1% | 15.3% | 15.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% |
EBITDA | 576 | 1,007 | 1,172 | 1,386 | 1,848 | 2,123 | 2,377 | 2,649 | 2,924 | 3,162 | 3,407 |
% of Revenue | 26.1% | 36.7% | 37.1% | 38.1% | 44.2% | 46.0% | 47.0% | 48.8% | 50.5% | 51.1% | 51.2% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 1,007 | 1,172 | 1,386 | 1,848 | 2,123 | 2,377 | 2,649 | 2,924 | 3,162 | 3,407 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (46) | (51) | (60) | (69) | (77) | (84) | (90) | (96) | (103) | (110) | |
EBIT | 961 | 1,121 | 1,326 | 1,779 | 2,046 | 2,293 | 2,559 | 2,828 | 3,060 | 3,297 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (115) | (134) | (159) | (213) | (246) | (275) | (307) | (339) | (367) | (396) | |
NOPAT | 475 | 846 | 986 | 1,167 | 1,566 | 1,801 | 2,018 | 2,252 | 2,489 | 2,693 | 2,901 |
Capital Expenditures | (146) | (174) | (180) | (200) | (245) | (274) | (240) | (253) | (256) | (249) | (253) |
NWC Investment | (66) | (92) | (71) | (83) | (94) | (73) | (76) | (64) | (62) | (68) | (80) |
(+) D&A | 36 | 46 | 51 | 60 | 69 | 77 | 84 | 90 | 96 | 103 | 110 |
Free Cash Flow | 299 | 626 | 786 | 944 | 1,296 | 1,530 | 1,786 | 2,025 | 2,267 | 2,478 | 2,679 |
% Growth | 26% | 20% | 37% | 18% | 17% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 8% |