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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 12.0% - 11.0% | 11.5% |
Terminal Revenue Multiple | 6.2x - 6.8x | 6.5x |
Fair Value | $148.71 - $169.22 | $158.64 |
Upside | -3.9% - 9.4% | 2.5% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | |||||||||||
(USD in millions) | Input Projections | ||||||||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
Revenue | 25,785 | 31,730 | 37,560 | 44,103 | 51,297 | 58,375 | 62,753 | 64,949 | 66,248 | 67,573 | 68,925 |
% Growth | 13.7% | 23.1% | 18.4% | 17.4% | 16.3% | 13.8% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
EBITDA | 5,150 | 6,576 | 9,854 | 12,670 | 16,471 | 19,173 | 20,925 | 21,657 | 22,090 | 22,532 | 22,983 |
% of Revenue | 20.0% | 20.7% | 26.2% | 28.7% | 32.1% | 32.8% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | |||||||||||
Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 | ||
EBITDA | 6,576 | 9,854 | 12,670 | 16,471 | 19,173 | 20,925 | 21,657 | 22,090 | 22,532 | 22,983 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 5,092 | 5,961 | 6,705 | 0 | 6,305 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (4,496) | (5,322) | (6,249) | (4,814) | (5,478) | (5,889) | (6,095) | (6,217) | (6,341) | (6,468) | |
EBIT | 7,172 | 10,493 | 13,126 | 11,657 | 20,000 | 15,036 | 15,562 | 15,873 | 16,191 | 16,514 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (1,148) | (1,679) | (2,100) | (1,865) | (3,200) | (2,406) | (2,490) | (2,540) | (2,590) | (2,642) | |
NOPAT | 1,752 | 6,025 | 8,814 | 11,026 | 9,792 | 16,800 | 12,630 | 13,072 | 13,333 | 13,600 | 13,872 |
Capital Expenditures | (636) | (820) | (884) | (808) | (1,100) | (1,200) | (1,036) | (1,072) | (1,094) | (1,067) | (1,078) |
NWC Investment | (825) | (1,580) | (1,549) | (1,739) | (1,912) | (1,881) | (1,164) | (584) | (345) | (352) | (359) |
(+) D&A | 3,064 | 4,496 | 5,322 | 6,249 | 4,814 | 5,478 | 5,889 | 6,095 | 6,217 | 6,341 | 6,468 |
Free Cash Flow | 3,355 | 8,121 | 11,703 | 14,728 | 11,594 | 19,197 | 16,319 | 17,511 | 18,112 | 18,522 | 18,903 |
% Growth | 44% | 26% | -21% | 66% | -15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% |